Statistical Analysis: Predictions

Retained estimation results (all accessible by name in subsequent operations)

  • Predictions produced by all models
  • Retain as a variable in the data set
  • List with residuals and confidence intervals
  • Extrapolate to out of sample observations

Example

Results shown will differ by model. The following shows the analysis of fit and listing of predictions for a binomial logit model.

+----------------------------------------+
| Fit Measures for Binomial Choice Model |
| Logit    model for variable MODE       |
+----------------------------------------+
| Proportions P0= .750000   P1= .250000  |
| N =     100 N0=      75   N1=      25  |
| LogL =   -46.20450 LogL0 =   -56.2335  |
| Estrella = 1-(L/L0)^(-2L0/n) = .19822  |
+----------------------------------------+
|     Efron |  McFadden  |  Ben./Lerman  |
|    .21782 |    .17835  |       .70349  |
|    Cramer | Veall/Zim. |     Rsqrd_ML  |
|    .20930 |    .31562  |       .18174  |
+----------------------------------------+
| Information  Akaike I.C. Schwarz I.C.  |
| Criteria         .98409     106.22452  |
+----------------------------------------+
Frequencies of actual & predicted outcomes
Predicted outcome has maximum probability.
Threshold value for predicting Y=1 = .5000
            Predicted
------  ----------  +  -----
Actual      0    1  |  Total
------  ----------  +  -----
  0        63   12  |     75
  1        12   13  |     25
------  ----------  +  -----
Total      75   25  |    100
       Predicted Values 
      Obs.      Observed Y   Predicted Y    Residual     x(i)b   Pr[Y=1]
        1        .00000        .00000          .0000    -2.9586    .0493
        2        .00000        .00000          .0000    -1.3397    .2076
        3        .00000        .00000          .0000    -1.3859    .2001
        4        1.0000        1.0000          .0000      .2351    .5585
        5        .00000        .00000          .0000    -2.7272    .0614
        6        .00000        .00000          .0000    -1.8030    .1415
        7        .00000        .00000          .0000    -2.2193    .0980
        8        1.0000        1.0000          .0000      .2340    .5582
        9        .00000        .00000          .0000    -2.9617    .0492
       10        .00000        .00000          .0000    -1.3463    .2065